Pitches, Balls and Back-ups – The Areas Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost

Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|